Strategy in TECH...
It has been quite the roller coaster ride for housing – first dropping a COVID-driven, eye-popping 30.2% in April to just a 934,000 unit seasonally adjusted annual rate. Then gradually rebounding in May and June…leading to a record 22.6% increase in July.
Now we see a bit of a pause in August, with overall housing starts declining 5.1% to a rate of 1,416,000 units, down from the revised rate of 1,492,000 in July.
By almost any measure, the housing market is in a major rebound, with the U.S. Commerce Department reporting on Tuesday that residential construction starts jumped an impressive 22.6% in July. This is the largest jump in housing starts in almost four years, according to a report by Reuters.
Two new economic reports from June covering the housing industry show promising results, with both residential construction (otherwise known as housing starts), and sales of newly constructed homes taking a nice bounce in June. This was welcome news after dramatic declines hit the housing market in early Spring.
But will it hold?
Last month, Strata-gee reported on a shocking 30+% drop in residential housing construction, with starts dropping an eye-popping 30.2% in April. That was ultimately revised to a decline of “only” 26.4%…still a massive one month decline. Now in May, we see starts attempting to rebound from those unprecedented drops.
I’ve been saying for a while now that really, really tough economic data was coming. Even though it was obvious to many of us that the economy was crashing – thanks to COVID-19 – it takes time for backward-looking statistics to catch up. Well, now they’re starting to catch up and with overall residential housing construction starts dropping an eye-popping 30.2% in April…they are ugly.
But read on to see why one piece of data seems to suggest that a housing turnaround make be lurking in the near future – or is even already here…
You knew it was coming, but we just couldn’t see it until statistical data caught up with the rapidly changing U.S. economy. But now, we are getting a snapshot of these changes and they are breathtaking…and a little scary. Hold on tight…it’s going to get worse before it gets better.
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department Housing and Urban Development announced this week that sales of newly built residences fell in February 2020. Housing starts also fell in February. This housing market downturn is likely a precursor to much more dramatic declines when figures for March 2020 are reported – a time period when the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic began to really take hold across America, forcing State and City governments across the U.S. to order residents of all non-essential businesses to stay home.
Like at the end of the Christmas movie, Miracle on 34th Street, it appears that Santa brought new homes for all the good little girls and boys at the end of last year. New government data on residential housing construction starts for December 2019 startled economists, jumping an unexpected 16.9% for the highest rate of construction in 13-years.
The Census Bureau, in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, released new home construction data for November, offering details on what is generally known as housing starts. The overall construction starts – which includes both single-family and multi-family homes – both showed increases over the revised numbers for October, suggesting a return to economic stability after a period of concern about a possible slowdown.
In new data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the readings appear split with housing starts showing increases while new home sales declined. Housing, a prime component of the overall U.S. GDP has been in a bit of a swell over the last couple of months, driven largely by low interest rates stimulating demand for homes.
