Strategy in TECH...
As the economy continues to show more signs of a slowdown, we can’t help but notice increasing volatility in the month-to-month readings of various statistics. The latest government data on housing construction starts is a great example of this. After a big jump in August, starts dropped in September by 9.4% – a larger than normal amount – from the revised rate in August.
In the choppy waters of today’s current economy, we continue to get mixed signals – this time from the housing market. Last week, we learned that residential construction starts declined in June by 0.9% below the rate in May. This week, we find that sales of newly built homes in June increased by 7% as compared to sales in May.
In the latest data from the US Department of Commerce, residential construction showed a decline for the month of May in both overall and in single-family starts. Viewed by many as another sign of an economic slowdown, housing is a major component of the overall US gross national product.
The latest data from the US Census Bureau shows a pretty nice increase in April residential housing construction starts – a key economic data for the custom integration industry. According to the report, overall housing starts came in at 1,235,000 units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate. This is 5.7% above the revised March rate of 1,168,000…and yet is it also down.
Two different economic reports on the residential housing market show conflicting results. One report is on the latest data in housing starts…the other contains the latest results on new home sales. But these reports paint two very different pictures. Is housing growing? Or rather, is it fading?
As regular Strata-gee readers know, I follow basic economic data for our readers. Not all economic data, just that data I feel are germane to the custom integration and consumer electronics industries. Normally, that is a fairly sane and sedate task – but lately, it has gotten a bit crazy, with wild up/down swings the likes of which I haven’t seen since the last great recession. Take housing starts, for example…
The U.S. Commerce Department released new data this week on housing starts for December 2018. Overall residential construction dropped to 1.08 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate or 11.2% lower than the November rate of 1.2 million units. This is the lowest rate of residential construction since September 2016.
As I write this on Wednesday, December 19th the stock market has closed down 351.98 points or nearly 1.5% to its lowest level of the year, according to CNBC. The broader S&P 500 Index also closed at a 2018 low. But as bad as this news is, perhaps even more concerning are two key indicators for the housing market – single-family housing starts and homebuilder sentiment – both of which showed disappointing results.
As you head home from work today, take a look around you at the other commuters on the road. All around you are Toyotas, Hondas, Nissans, Suburus and the like. These are all signs of the incredible success Japan has has penetrating the U.S. automobile market – taking significant market share away from the once dominant Big Three American auto makers, GM, Ford, and Dodge/Chrysler many years ago.
Can Japan do it again? Are builders D.R. Horton, Lennar, PulteGroup, K.B. Homes at risk of the same loss of market share? If Takeshi Homma (pictured here) is successful, he hopes to help Japanese companies take a big bite of the American homebuilding market.
I’ve been sounding the alarm about a housing slowdown for a couple of months now, starting with this overall look at how a housing industry-led recession could be just around the corner. Now, new data on housing, the industry that was a major driver of the last recession, continues to offer a bearish outlook with housing construction starts dropping a significant 5.3% in the month of September.
