Strategy in TECH...
As the economy continues to show more signs of a slowdown, we can’t help but notice increasing volatility in the month-to-month readings of various statistics. The latest government data on housing construction starts is a great example of this. After a big jump in August, starts dropped in September by 9.4% – a larger than normal amount – from the revised rate in August.
In the choppy waters of today’s current economy, we continue to get mixed signals – this time from the housing market. Last week, we learned that residential construction starts declined in June by 0.9% below the rate in May. This week, we find that sales of newly built homes in June increased by 7% as compared to sales in May.
The latest data from the Census Bureau shows that sales of new single-family housing in April dropped to a rate of 673,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. This level is down a substantial 6.9% from the adjusted rate for March of 723,000 houses sold.
The U.S. Commerce Department released new data this week on housing starts for December 2018. Overall residential construction dropped to 1.08 million units on a seasonally adjusted annual rate or 11.2% lower than the November rate of 1.2 million units. This is the lowest rate of residential construction since September 2016.
In a result that was not expected by most industry analysts, contract signings to purchase previously owned homes dropped in December for the third month in a row. The news is widely viewed as yet another indicator of a housing industry slowdown, along with declining affordability and rising housing and mortgage costs.
In what many feel is yet another sign of a brewing economic storm, sales of new single-family homes in October showed a significant drop of 8.9% below the rate of home sales in September, according to new data from the United States Census Bureau. With this result, the inventory of new homes available for sale jumped to 7.4-months, a 14% jump in unsold newly constructed homes.
Recently, I warned of some troubling housing related news. You may recall that a collapse in the housing sector was a key driver of the last recession in 2007-2009 that was so painful for the custom integration community, and for the country as a whole. In my report – Are You Prepared for the Coming Recession? – I noted a pronounced and troubling turn in several housing industry specific data, perhaps presaging another economic downturn. Now new government data shows that, once again, new residential sales have declined in the month of September.
The Associated Builders and Contractors, Inc., (ABC) a builders trade association, held their third annual Mid-Year Construction Forecast presentation this week…inviting economists from three industry-related associations to present their outlook on the construction industry. This year, the invited economists included Kermit Baker (American Institute of Architects, AIA), David Crowe (National Association of Home Builders, NAHB), and their own Anirban Basu (ABC).
The economists this year were, overall, cautiously optimistic – with a heavy emphasis on caution.
Since 2007, the housing industry has been in a long, downward slump, with only a few positive bumps along the way providing some moderation. Today, however, we may be finally seeing some of the first “green shoots” of a possible turnaround in housing with two different and unrelated reports turning in positive numbers.
<March 21, 2012> An investment expert once told me that Wall Street is most dangerous when everyone agrees on the market’s direction – either up or down (bulls or bears in Wall Street parlance.) If everyone says the market is going up – then the market is likely a bubble headed towards a burst. If everyone says its going down, then we’re probably in a crash and hard times are ahead. No, it’s safest when investment and economic experts – and the underlying data they rely upon – is mixed…which is exactly where the housing market is right now. [Read more…] about Housing Market Data is Mixed – Why That Really is Good News
